Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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AmeriServ Financial, Inc. (ASRV)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.22 - $7.82$4.78
Multi-Stage$4.22 - $4.62$4.42
Blended Fair Value$4.60
Current Price$2.90
Upside58.68%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.23%10.39%0.120.120.120.100.100.100.080.070.060.05
YoY Growth---1.85%4.63%15.16%-0.47%4.51%21.90%21.02%17.78%25.33%0.27%
Dividend Yield--5.03%5.35%3.90%2.56%2.56%3.79%2.02%1.68%1.53%1.53%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2.52
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1.98
(=) Cash Retained (M)0.53
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)0.500.310.19
Cash Retained (M)0.530.530.53
(-) Cash Required (M)-0.50-0.31-0.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)0.030.220.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)16.5216.5216.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.120.130.14
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate2.43%3.43%4.43%
Fair Value$3.22$4.78$7.82
Upside / Downside10.88%64.98%169.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2.522.602.692.782.882.983.07
Payout Ratio78.81%81.05%83.28%85.52%87.76%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1.982.112.242.382.532.682.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate2.43%3.43%4.43%
Year 1 PV (M)1.961.982.00
Year 2 PV (M)1.941.982.02
Year 3 PV (M)1.921.982.04
Year 4 PV (M)1.901.982.06
Year 5 PV (M)1.881.972.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)60.1163.1066.21
Equity Value (M)69.7273.0076.40
Shares Outstanding (M)16.5216.5216.52
Fair Value$4.22$4.42$4.62
Upside / Downside45.55%52.38%59.48%

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