Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd (AN3PG.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - DiversifiedSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$37.78 - $56.96$46.83
Multi-Stage$55.84 - $61.08$58.41
Blended Fair Value$52.62
Current Price$101.63
Upside-48.22%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.27%3.22%1.611.351.160.870.881.371.401.351.401.16
YoY Growth--19.91%15.75%33.52%-0.94%-36.01%-2.02%4.04%-3.90%21.29%-1.67%
Dividend Yield--1.59%1.32%1.10%0.81%0.84%1.27%1.32%1.27%1.39%1.15%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)14,094.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8,954.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,140.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,818.801,761.751,057.05
Cash Retained (M)5,140.005,140.005,140.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,818.80-1,761.75-1,057.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,321.203,378.254,082.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,252.373,252.373,252.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.711.041.26
LTM Dividend per Share2.752.752.75
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.711.041.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.473.794.01
WACC / Discount Rate9.24%9.24%9.24%
Growth Rate0.06%1.06%2.06%
Fair Value$37.78$46.83$56.96
Upside / Downside-62.83%-53.92%-43.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)14,094.0014,242.7714,393.1214,545.0514,698.5814,853.7415,299.35
Payout Ratio63.53%68.82%74.12%79.41%84.71%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8,954.009,802.5110,667.9411,550.5512,450.6013,368.3714,151.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.24%9.24%9.24%
Growth Rate0.06%1.06%2.06%
Year 1 PV (M)8,884.758,973.559,062.35
Year 2 PV (M)8,763.888,939.939,117.74
Year 3 PV (M)8,600.558,861.019,126.67
Year 4 PV (M)8,402.758,743.759,095.01
Year 5 PV (M)8,177.448,594.349,028.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)138,777.22145,852.24153,212.92
Equity Value (M)181,606.59189,964.81198,642.76
Shares Outstanding (M)3,252.373,252.373,252.37
Fair Value$55.84$58.41$61.08
Upside / Downside-45.06%-42.53%-39.90%

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