Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

West China Cement Limited (2233.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.95 - $8.07$5.53
Multi-Stage$7.47 - $8.21$7.83
Blended Fair Value$6.68
Current Price$1.38
Upside384.22%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-14.46%3.27%0.020.070.090.120.060.050.040.000.000.00
YoY Growth---65.57%-22.99%-28.01%94.17%23.60%27.76%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-90.07%
Dividend Yield--1.55%10.85%10.69%10.67%6.42%4.41%4.23%0.00%0.00%0.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,263.56
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)489.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)773.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)252.71157.9594.77
Cash Retained (M)773.71773.71773.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-252.71-157.95-94.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)520.99615.76678.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,451.155,451.155,451.15
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.110.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.110.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.190.200.21
WACC / Discount Rate5.59%5.59%5.59%
Growth Rate0.86%1.86%2.86%
Fair Value$3.95$5.53$8.07
Upside / Downside186.37%301.06%484.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,263.561,287.071,311.011,335.401,360.251,385.561,427.12
Payout Ratio38.77%49.01%59.26%69.51%79.75%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)489.86630.85776.92928.201,084.851,247.001,320.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.59%5.59%5.59%
Growth Rate0.86%1.86%2.86%
Year 1 PV (M)591.57597.43603.30
Year 2 PV (M)683.18696.79710.54
Year 3 PV (M)765.38788.38811.82
Year 4 PV (M)838.85872.62907.39
Year 5 PV (M)904.20949.92997.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)36,910.7838,777.2240,718.42
Equity Value (M)40,693.9642,682.3644,748.94
Shares Outstanding (M)5,451.155,451.155,451.15
Fair Value$7.47$7.83$8.21
Upside / Downside440.96%467.39%494.86%

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