Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Watts Water Technologies, Inc. (WTS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$219.40 - $557.55$331.02
Multi-Stage$151.24 - $165.27$158.13
Blended Fair Value$244.57
Current Price$276.36
Upside-11.50%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.07%10.47%1.661.391.181.020.940.940.840.770.730.69
YoY Growth--19.35%17.72%15.16%9.24%0.00%10.95%9.27%5.71%6.06%12.68%
Dividend Yield--0.81%0.66%0.73%0.72%0.79%1.15%1.03%1.03%1.20%1.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)324.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)63.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)260.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)64.9440.5924.35
Cash Retained (M)260.90260.90260.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-64.94-40.59-24.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)195.96220.31236.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)33.5033.5033.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.856.587.06
LTM Dividend per Share1.901.901.90
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.856.587.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend7.758.488.97
WACC / Discount Rate9.23%9.23%9.23%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$219.40$331.02$557.55
Upside / Downside-20.61%19.78%101.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)324.70345.81368.28392.22417.72444.87458.21
Payout Ratio19.65%33.72%47.79%61.86%75.93%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)63.80116.60176.00242.63317.17400.38423.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.23%9.23%9.23%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)105.75106.75107.75
Year 2 PV (M)144.76147.52150.30
Year 3 PV (M)180.98186.18191.47
Year 4 PV (M)214.56222.82231.30
Year 5 PV (M)245.64257.51269.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,174.924,376.574,585.94
Equity Value (M)5,066.625,297.345,536.59
Shares Outstanding (M)33.5033.5033.50
Fair Value$151.24$158.13$165.27
Upside / Downside-45.27%-42.78%-40.20%

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