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Definitive Analysis

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Wintrust Financial Corporation (WTFC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$246.90 - $585.98$364.35
Multi-Stage$174.13 - $190.23$182.04
Blended Fair Value$273.19
Current Price$132.44
Upside106.28%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.09%19.11%2.121.861.601.461.270.960.750.600.570.44
YoY Growth--13.99%16.15%9.71%14.83%31.92%27.70%25.76%5.12%29.04%19.87%
Dividend Yield--1.88%1.80%2.19%1.57%1.67%2.93%1.07%0.70%0.82%1.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)786.18
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)164.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)621.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)157.2498.2758.96
Cash Retained (M)621.70621.70621.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-157.24-98.27-58.96
(=) Excess Retained (M)464.46523.43562.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)67.6767.6767.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share6.867.748.32
LTM Dividend per Share2.432.432.43
(+) Excess Retained per Share6.867.748.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend9.2910.1710.75
WACC / Discount Rate9.47%9.47%9.47%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$246.90$364.35$585.98
Upside / Downside86.43%175.10%342.45%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)786.18837.28891.71949.671,011.401,077.141,109.45
Payout Ratio20.92%34.74%48.55%62.37%76.18%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)164.48290.85432.95592.30770.53969.421,026.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.47%9.47%9.47%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)263.19265.69268.18
Year 2 PV (M)354.52361.27368.09
Year 3 PV (M)438.88451.48464.31
Year 4 PV (M)516.65536.52556.95
Year 5 PV (M)588.20616.61646.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,621.6710,086.4010,568.91
Equity Value (M)11,783.1012,317.9612,872.55
Shares Outstanding (M)67.6767.6767.67
Fair Value$174.13$182.04$190.23
Upside / Downside31.48%37.45%43.64%

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