Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Watsco, Inc. (WSO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - DistributionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$344.28 - $925.38$528.56
Multi-Stage$250.98 - $273.33$261.96
Blended Fair Value$395.26
Current Price$404.30
Upside-2.24%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.90%19.75%11.1910.118.787.787.026.385.534.343.372.60
YoY Growth--10.68%15.10%12.88%10.84%10.07%15.39%27.46%28.64%29.51%41.02%
Dividend Yield--2.20%2.33%2.76%2.55%2.69%4.04%3.81%2.40%2.35%1.93%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)549.75
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)461.12
(=) Cash Retained (M)88.63
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)109.9568.7241.23
Cash Retained (M)88.6388.6388.63
(-) Cash Required (M)-109.95-68.72-41.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)-21.3219.9147.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)37.8537.8537.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.560.531.25
LTM Dividend per Share12.1812.1812.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.560.531.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend11.6212.7113.44
WACC / Discount Rate9.06%9.06%9.06%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$344.28$528.56$925.38
Upside / Downside-14.85%30.74%128.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)549.75585.48623.53664.06707.23753.20775.79
Payout Ratio83.88%85.10%86.33%87.55%88.78%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)461.12498.26538.28581.40627.85677.88717.61

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.06%9.06%9.06%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)452.57456.86461.15
Year 2 PV (M)444.10452.56461.09
Year 3 PV (M)435.69448.20460.94
Year 4 PV (M)427.36443.79460.70
Year 5 PV (M)419.11439.35460.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,320.327,673.898,041.00
Equity Value (M)9,499.149,914.6510,345.25
Shares Outstanding (M)37.8537.8537.85
Fair Value$250.98$261.96$273.33
Upside / Downside-37.92%-35.21%-32.39%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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