Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Winmark Corporation (WINA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$140.93 - $240.28$184.05
Multi-Stage$193.82 - $211.69$202.59
Blended Fair Value$193.32
Current Price$502.49
Upside-61.53%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS62.32%3.74%10.5711.885.249.023.870.940.590.480.420.33
YoY Growth---10.99%126.73%-41.93%133.03%312.59%58.95%22.94%15.60%24.31%-95.44%
Dividend Yield--3.36%3.28%1.63%3.99%2.08%0.71%0.31%0.37%0.37%0.34%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)41.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)39.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)1.55
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.265.163.10
Cash Retained (M)1.551.551.55
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.26-5.16-3.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)-6.70-3.61-1.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3.683.683.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share-1.82-0.98-0.42
LTM Dividend per Share10.8010.8010.80
(+) Excess Retained per Share-1.82-0.98-0.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend8.989.8210.38
WACC / Discount Rate8.22%8.22%8.22%
Growth Rate1.74%2.74%3.74%
Fair Value$140.93$184.05$240.28
Upside / Downside-71.95%-63.37%-52.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)41.2842.4143.5744.7645.9847.2448.66
Payout Ratio96.24%94.99%93.74%92.50%91.25%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)39.7340.2840.8441.4041.9642.5245.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.22%8.22%8.22%
Growth Rate1.74%2.74%3.74%
Year 1 PV (M)36.8637.2237.59
Year 2 PV (M)34.2034.8735.56
Year 3 PV (M)31.7232.6733.63
Year 4 PV (M)29.4230.5931.80
Year 5 PV (M)27.2828.6430.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)553.15580.87609.70
Equity Value (M)712.62744.87778.33
Shares Outstanding (M)3.683.683.68
Fair Value$193.82$202.59$211.69
Upside / Downside-61.43%-59.68%-57.87%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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