Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Volkswagen AG (VOW.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$285.31 - $655.31$416.46
Multi-Stage$311.34 - $340.75$325.77
Blended Fair Value$371.11
Current Price$91.96
Upside303.56%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.79%11.41%11.5323.408.705.975.895.784.742.660.735.02
YoY Growth---50.74%168.96%45.69%1.42%1.83%22.06%78.30%265.93%-85.53%28.24%
Dividend Yield--12.32%19.07%6.93%3.80%2.47%5.41%3.28%1.65%0.53%4.49%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7,121.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,412.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,709.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,424.20890.13534.08
Cash Retained (M)2,709.002,709.002,709.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,424.20-890.13-534.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,284.801,818.882,174.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)501.30501.30501.30
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.563.634.34
LTM Dividend per Share8.808.808.80
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.563.634.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend11.3612.4313.14
WACC / Discount Rate7.25%7.25%7.25%
Growth Rate3.14%4.14%5.14%
Fair Value$285.31$416.46$655.31
Upside / Downside210.26%352.87%612.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7,121.007,416.147,723.518,043.628,376.998,724.198,985.91
Payout Ratio61.96%67.57%73.17%78.78%84.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,412.005,010.795,651.646,337.017,069.477,851.778,311.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.25%7.25%7.25%
Growth Rate3.14%4.14%5.14%
Year 1 PV (M)4,627.084,671.944,716.80
Year 2 PV (M)4,819.214,913.115,007.91
Year 3 PV (M)4,989.835,136.385,285.76
Year 4 PV (M)5,140.315,342.575,550.75
Year 5 PV (M)5,271.945,532.515,803.27
PV of Terminal Value (M)131,226.29137,712.11144,451.89
Equity Value (M)156,074.67163,308.62170,816.39
Shares Outstanding (M)501.30501.30501.30
Fair Value$311.34$325.77$340.75
Upside / Downside238.56%254.26%270.54%

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