Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Valero Energy Corporation (VLO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$50.89 - $81.55$64.77
Multi-Stage$77.34 - $84.52$80.86
Blended Fair Value$72.81
Current Price$170.26
Upside-57.23%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.49%9.59%4.434.644.995.125.124.774.383.973.552.71
YoY Growth---4.68%-7.04%-2.50%0.13%7.24%8.98%10.23%11.79%31.01%53.07%
Dividend Yield--3.35%2.69%3.58%5.04%7.15%10.52%5.06%4.28%5.36%4.23%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,495.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,400.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)95.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)299.00186.88112.13
Cash Retained (M)95.0095.0095.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-299.00-186.88-112.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)-204.00-91.88-17.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)312.75312.75312.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.65-0.29-0.05
LTM Dividend per Share4.484.484.48
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.65-0.29-0.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.824.184.42
WACC / Discount Rate8.32%8.32%8.32%
Growth Rate0.75%1.75%2.75%
Fair Value$50.89$64.77$81.55
Upside / Downside-70.11%-61.96%-52.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,495.001,521.091,547.631,574.641,602.121,630.081,678.98
Payout Ratio93.65%92.92%92.19%91.46%90.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,400.001,413.341,426.721,440.141,453.591,467.071,553.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.32%8.32%8.32%
Growth Rate0.75%1.75%2.75%
Year 1 PV (M)1,292.011,304.831,317.66
Year 2 PV (M)1,192.271,216.061,240.08
Year 3 PV (M)1,100.171,133.251,167.00
Year 4 PV (M)1,015.111,056.021,098.15
Year 5 PV (M)936.57983.991,033.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)18,650.9019,595.1120,577.18
Equity Value (M)24,187.0325,289.2626,433.37
Shares Outstanding (M)312.75312.75312.75
Fair Value$77.34$80.86$84.52
Upside / Downside-54.58%-52.51%-50.36%

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