Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Village Super Market, Inc. (VLGEA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Grocery StoresSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$60.67 - $117.11$83.20
Multi-Stage$80.70 - $88.60$84.58
Blended Fair Value$83.89
Current Price$31.37
Upside167.42%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.52%0.57%0.920.920.910.900.900.890.890.890.880.87
YoY Growth---0.25%1.12%1.17%-0.07%0.66%0.58%0.09%0.70%1.22%0.45%
Dividend Yield--2.55%3.08%3.78%4.03%4.03%3.82%3.45%3.50%3.61%2.90%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)55.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)44.23
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.126.954.17
Cash Retained (M)44.2344.2344.23
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.12-6.95-4.17
(=) Excess Retained (M)33.1237.2840.06
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)14.5314.5314.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.282.572.76
LTM Dividend per Share0.780.780.78
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.282.572.76
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.063.353.54
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate1.89%2.89%3.89%
Fair Value$60.67$83.20$117.11
Upside / Downside93.40%165.23%273.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)55.5857.1958.8460.5562.3064.1066.02
Payout Ratio20.42%34.33%48.25%62.17%76.08%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11.3519.6328.3937.6447.4057.6961.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate1.89%2.89%3.89%
Year 1 PV (M)18.1718.3418.52
Year 2 PV (M)24.3024.7825.27
Year 3 PV (M)29.8130.7031.60
Year 4 PV (M)34.7336.1237.54
Year 5 PV (M)39.1141.0743.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,026.781,078.161,131.58
Equity Value (M)1,172.901,229.171,287.62
Shares Outstanding (M)14.5314.5314.53
Fair Value$80.70$84.58$88.60
Upside / Downside157.27%169.61%182.43%

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