Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Vallourec S.A. (VK.PA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.95 - $24.75$20.03
Multi-Stage$37.94 - $41.71$39.79
Blended Fair Value$29.91
Current Price$16.18
Upside84.84%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.18
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-47.90%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.37%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)423.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)352.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)71.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)84.6052.8831.73
Cash Retained (M)71.0071.0071.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-84.60-52.88-31.73
(=) Excess Retained (M)-13.6018.1339.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)248.98248.98248.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.050.070.16
LTM Dividend per Share1.411.411.41
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.050.070.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.361.491.57
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$15.95$20.03$24.75
Upside / Downside-1.40%23.77%52.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)423.00418.77414.58410.44406.33402.27414.34
Payout Ratio83.22%84.57%85.93%87.29%88.64%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)352.00354.16356.25358.25360.19362.04383.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)329.66333.02336.38
Year 2 PV (M)308.65314.98321.38
Year 3 PV (M)288.91297.85306.97
Year 4 PV (M)270.37281.58293.13
Year 5 PV (M)252.96266.13279.85
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,996.798,413.208,846.78
Equity Value (M)9,447.349,906.7610,384.48
Shares Outstanding (M)248.98248.98248.98
Fair Value$37.94$39.79$41.71
Upside / Downside134.51%145.91%157.77%

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