DDM Analysis: VHI

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$5.07 - $7.46	$6.22
Multi-Stage	$7.74 - $8.48	$8.11
Blended Fair Value	$7.16
Current Price	$15.78
Upside	-54.60%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-19.61%	-13.16%	0.32	0.32	0.32	0.32	0.48	0.95	0.95	0.95	0.95	0.95
YoY Growth	-	-	0.00%	1.11%	0.00%	-33.82%	-49.82%	0.00%	-0.37%	0.37%	0.00%	-27.35%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.96%	1.92%	1.81%	1.08%	2.33%	7.69%	3.30%	1.31%	2.42%	6.72%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	18.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	9.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)	9.30

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	3.68	2.30	1.38
Cash Retained (M)	9.30	9.30	9.30
(-) Cash Required (M)	-3.68	-2.30	-1.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)	5.62	7.00	7.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	28.50	28.50	28.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.20	0.25	0.28
LTM Dividend per Share	0.32	0.32	0.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.20	0.25	0.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.52	0.56	0.60
WACC / Discount Rate	9.33%	9.33%	9.33%
Growth Rate	-0.77%	0.23%	1.23%
Fair Value	$5.07	$6.22	$7.46
Upside / Downside	-67.84%	-60.57%	-52.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	18.40	18.44	18.48	18.53	18.57	18.61	19.17
Payout Ratio	49.46%	57.57%	65.67%	73.78%	81.89%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	9.10	10.62	12.14	13.67	15.21	16.75	17.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.33%	9.33%	9.33%
Growth Rate	-0.77%	0.23%	1.23%
Year 1 PV (M)	9.61	9.71	9.81
Year 2 PV (M)	9.95	10.16	10.36
Year 3 PV (M)	10.15	10.46	10.78
Year 4 PV (M)	10.23	10.64	11.07
Year 5 PV (M)	10.20	10.72	11.27
PV of Terminal Value (M)	170.58	179.35	188.47
Equity Value (M)	220.72	231.04	241.76
Shares Outstanding (M)	28.50	28.50	28.50
Fair Value	$7.74	$8.11	$8.48
Upside / Downside	-50.92%	-48.63%	-46.24%

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Valhi, Inc. (VHI)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener