Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $8.63 - $12.31 | $10.44 |
| Multi-Stage | $16.97 - $18.63 | $17.79 |
| Blended Fair Value | $14.11 | |
| Current Price | $10.94 | |
| Upside | 28.99% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -10.95% | -1.36% | 0.82 | 0.83 | 0.86 | 0.83 | 1.55 | 1.46 | 1.37 | 1.29 | 1.22 | 1.09 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -1.58% | -2.68% | 2.78% | -46.18% | 5.72% | 6.56% | 6.30% | 5.74% | 12.44% | 15.63% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 7.66% | 6.94% | 7.11% | 5.97% | 16.43% | 14.14% | 7.43% | 7.19% | 6.50% | 6.31% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 199.67 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 126.49 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 73.19 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 39.93 | 24.96 | 14.98 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 73.19 | 73.19 | 73.19 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -39.93 | -24.96 | -14.98 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 33.25 | 48.23 | 58.21 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 153.96 | 153.96 | 153.96 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.22 | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.22 | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 1.04 | 1.13 | 1.20 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 8.26% | 8.26% | 8.26% |
| Growth Rate | -3.36% | -2.36% | -1.36% |
| Fair Value | $8.63 | $10.44 | $12.31 |
| Upside / Downside | -21.10% | -4.60% | 12.48% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 199.67 | 194.97 | 190.37 | 185.89 | 181.50 | 177.23 | 182.54 |
| Payout Ratio | 63.35% | 68.68% | 74.01% | 79.34% | 84.67% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 126.49 | 133.90 | 140.89 | 147.48 | 153.68 | 159.50 | 168.85 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 8.26% | 8.26% | 8.26% |
| Growth Rate | -3.36% | -2.36% | -1.36% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 122.42 | 123.68 | 124.95 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 117.76 | 120.21 | 122.69 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 112.70 | 116.24 | 119.84 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 107.37 | 111.88 | 116.53 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 101.88 | 107.26 | 112.87 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 2,050.69 | 2,159.00 | 2,271.84 |
| Equity Value (M) | 2,612.82 | 2,738.28 | 2,868.73 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 153.96 | 153.96 | 153.96 |
| Fair Value | $16.97 | $17.79 | $18.63 |
| Upside / Downside | 55.12% | 62.57% | 70.32% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATCOL | Atlas Corp. | 3.53% | $0.89 | 30.47% |
| AWC-R.BK | Asset World Corp Public Company Limited | 3.53% | $0.07 | 37.62% |
| CCRO3.SA | CCR S.A. | 3.53% | $0.48 | 66.57% |
| HMU.DE | HMS Bergbau AG | 3.53% | $1.69 | 29.89% |
| RAUTE.HE | Raute Oyj | 3.53% | $0.52 | 26.97% |
| RWE.DE | RWE AG | 3.53% | $1.66 | 46.76% |
| SNL.AX | Supply Network Limited | 3.53% | $1.13 | 67.28% |
| 0NHS.L | Nutrien Ltd. | 3.52% | $2.18 | 58.76% |
| CELL.MI | Cellularline S.p.A. | 3.52% | $0.09 | 34.70% |
| INFREA.ST | Infrea AB | 3.52% | $0.50 | 67.57% |
| ISSP.JK | PT Steel Pipe Industry of Indonesia Tbk | 3.52% | $15.00 | 19.85% |
| MGA | Magna International Inc. | 3.52% | $1.92 | 52.47% |
| PARP.PA | Groupe Partouche S.A. | 3.52% | $0.64 | 38.61% |
| PKI.TO | Parkland Corporation | 3.52% | $1.40 | 73.81% |
| SMU.SN | SMU S.A. | 3.52% | $5.49 | 46.99% |
| 161390.KS | Hankook Tire & Technology Co., Ltd. | 3.51% | $2,000.00 | 25.86% |
| 300360.SZ | Hangzhou Sunrise Technology Co., Ltd. | 3.51% | $0.61 | 52.03% |
| 5106.KL | Axis Real Estate Investment Trust | 3.51% | $0.07 | 56.99% |
| 601128.SS | Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd. | 3.51% | $0.25 | 19.56% |
| INTP.JK | PT Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk | 3.51% | $259.81 | 43.04% |
| RATO-A.ST | Ratos AB (publ) | 3.51% | $1.35 | 12.15% |
| 002887.SZ | Tianjin LVYIN Landscape and Ecology Construction Co., Ltd | 3.50% | $0.33 | 84.50% |
| 603062.SS | MEGA P&C Advanced Materials (Shanghai) Company Limited | 3.50% | $1.66 | 74.27% |
| CMCL | Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc | 3.50% | $0.92 | 35.87% |
| DLO | DLocal Limited | 3.50% | $0.49 | 87.74% |
| LAZ | Lazard Ltd | 3.50% | $1.74 | 67.48% |
| TWL.MI | TraWell Co S.p.A. | 3.50% | $0.21 | 28.69% |
| WJP.SI | VICOM Ltd | 3.50% | $0.06 | 66.95% |
| 005610.KS | SPC Samlip Co., Ltd. | 3.49% | $1,803.39 | 45.19% |
| 0RFL.L | VAT Group AG | 3.49% | $12.50 | 88.50% |
| 2030.HK | Cabbeen Fashion Limited | 3.49% | $0.05 | 63.92% |
| 5206.TWO | Kunyue Development Co., Ltd. | 3.49% | $1.18 | 21.91% |
| 5246.KL | Westports Holdings Berhad | 3.49% | $0.20 | 71.36% |
| 5989.T | H-One Co.,Ltd. | 3.49% | $49.44 | 14.49% |
| ACO-X.TO | ATCO Ltd. | 3.49% | $1.98 | 50.80% |
| CNI | Canadian National Railway Company | 3.49% | $3.50 | 50.64% |
| PEAB3.SA | Companhia de Participações Aliança da Bahia | 3.49% | $1.36 | 78.68% |
| 026960.KS | Dong Suh Companies Inc. | 3.48% | $905.33 | 62.72% |
| 055550.KS | Shinhan Financial Group Co., Ltd. | 3.48% | $2,668.74 | 26.55% |
| 0QK5.L | INFICON Holding AG | 3.48% | $3.44 | 43.54% |
| 6722.TWO | Whetron Electronics Co.,Ltd. | 3.48% | $1.99 | 24.71% |
| HOLM-A.ST | Holmen AB (publ) | 3.48% | $12.23 | 66.11% |
| 002206.SZ | Zhejiang Hailide New Material Co.,Ltd | 3.47% | $0.20 | 43.30% |
| 3004.SR | Northern Region Cement Company | 3.47% | $0.25 | 79.89% |
| 4129.TWO | United Orthopedic Corporation | 3.47% | $3.80 | 69.70% |
| 600133.SS | Wuhan East Lake High Technology Group Co., Ltd. | 3.47% | $0.32 | 87.27% |
| 601995.SS | China International Capital Corporation Limited | 3.47% | $1.21 | 62.35% |
| 6471.T | NSK Ltd. | 3.47% | $33.82 | 92.34% |
| CSED3.SA | Cruzeiro do Sul Educacional S.A. | 3.47% | $0.21 | 30.49% |
| GPRA.JK | PT Perdana Gapuraprima Tbk | 3.47% | $5.00 | 18.12% |