Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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abrdn National Municipal Income Fund (VFL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$25.58 - $39.72$32.12
Multi-Stage$58.80 - $64.77$61.73
Blended Fair Value$46.92
Current Price$11.17
Upside320.09%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.490.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.34%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)33.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)21.96
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6.674.172.50
Cash Retained (M)21.9621.9621.96
(-) Cash Required (M)-6.67-4.17-2.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)15.2917.7919.46
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)12.2812.2812.28
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.241.451.58
LTM Dividend per Share0.930.930.93
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.241.451.58
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.172.382.51
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$25.58$32.12$39.72
Upside / Downside129.01%187.57%255.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)33.3633.0232.6932.3732.0431.7232.68
Payout Ratio34.18%45.34%56.51%67.67%78.84%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11.4014.9718.4721.9025.2628.5530.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)13.9414.0814.23
Year 2 PV (M)16.0116.3416.67
Year 3 PV (M)17.6818.2218.78
Year 4 PV (M)18.9819.7620.58
Year 5 PV (M)19.9721.0122.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)635.39668.47702.92
Equity Value (M)721.96757.89795.27
Shares Outstanding (M)12.2812.2812.28
Fair Value$58.80$61.73$64.77
Upside / Downside426.42%452.62%479.87%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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