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Definitive Analysis

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Vintcom Technology Public Company Limited (VCOM.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Technology DistributorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$34.12 - $74.87$70.17
Multi-Stage$11.62 - $12.70$12.15
Blended Fair Value$41.16
Current Price$2.90
Upside1,319.22%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.67%11.87%0.300.300.290.200.260.120.060.170.230.08
YoY Growth--0.00%3.45%46.69%-22.19%116.66%84.63%-63.45%-23.02%188.75%-20.00%
Dividend Yield--13.21%9.13%6.53%2.72%4.36%6.36%2.06%4.50%7.87%2.73%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)115.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)98.24
(=) Cash Retained (M)16.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)23.0214.398.63
Cash Retained (M)16.8616.8616.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-23.02-14.39-8.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)-6.162.478.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)305.73305.73305.73
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.010.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.320.320.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.010.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.300.330.35
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$34.12$70.17$74.87
Upside / Downside1,076.52%2,319.49%2,481.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)115.10122.58130.55139.03148.07157.70162.43
Payout Ratio85.35%86.28%87.21%88.14%89.07%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)98.24105.77113.85122.55131.89141.93150.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)98.4499.38100.31
Year 2 PV (M)98.63100.51102.41
Year 3 PV (M)98.81101.65104.54
Year 4 PV (M)98.98102.78106.70
Year 5 PV (M)99.14103.92108.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,058.523,206.243,359.62
Equity Value (M)3,552.523,714.493,882.47
Shares Outstanding (M)305.73305.73305.73
Fair Value$11.62$12.15$12.70
Upside / Downside300.68%318.95%337.90%

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