Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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United Paper Public Company Limited (UTP.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Paper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$42.41 - $161.37$123.00
Multi-Stage$24.97 - $27.32$26.12
Blended Fair Value$74.56
Current Price$7.65
Upside874.64%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.71%14.20%0.830.600.740.791.080.600.250.150.150.10
YoY Growth--38.33%-18.90%-6.34%-26.82%79.93%139.98%66.67%0.00%50.00%-54.55%
Dividend Yield--10.64%5.41%5.52%4.82%5.51%8.69%2.50%1.30%1.94%2.92%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)531.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)390.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)141.34
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)106.2766.4239.85
Cash Retained (M)141.34141.34141.34
(-) Cash Required (M)-106.27-66.42-39.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)35.0774.93101.49
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)650.00650.00650.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.120.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.600.600.60
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.120.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.650.720.76
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate4.71%5.71%6.71%
Fair Value$42.41$123.00$161.37
Upside / Downside454.33%1,507.78%2,009.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)531.34561.67593.72627.60663.42701.28722.32
Payout Ratio73.40%76.72%80.04%83.36%86.68%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)390.00430.91475.21523.17575.05631.15668.14

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate4.71%5.71%6.71%
Year 1 PV (M)401.45405.28409.12
Year 2 PV (M)412.46420.38428.37
Year 3 PV (M)423.05435.29447.76
Year 4 PV (M)433.22450.01467.28
Year 5 PV (M)442.98464.54486.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,118.4314,805.6215,519.31
Equity Value (M)16,231.5916,981.1217,758.77
Shares Outstanding (M)650.00650.00650.00
Fair Value$24.97$26.12$27.32
Upside / Downside226.43%241.50%257.14%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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