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Definitive Analysis

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Utah Medical Products, Inc. (UTMD)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Instruments & SuppliesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$28.53 - $42.39$35.14
Multi-Stage$54.37 - $59.80$57.03
Blended Fair Value$46.09
Current Price$62.97
Upside-26.81%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.71%1.24%1.301.300.963.491.251.251.220.901.191.17
YoY Growth---0.51%35.38%-72.41%178.55%0.10%2.14%36.24%-24.54%1.82%2.15%
Dividend Yield--2.31%1.84%1.02%3.88%1.45%1.33%1.38%0.91%1.91%1.87%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)11.62
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4.11
(=) Cash Retained (M)7.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.321.450.87
Cash Retained (M)7.517.517.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.32-1.45-0.87
(=) Excess Retained (M)5.196.066.64
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3.293.293.29
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.581.842.02
LTM Dividend per Share1.251.251.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.581.842.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.833.093.27
WACC / Discount Rate7.61%7.61%7.61%
Growth Rate-2.09%-1.09%-0.09%
Fair Value$28.53$35.14$42.39
Upside / Downside-54.70%-44.19%-32.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)11.6211.5011.3711.2511.1211.0011.33
Payout Ratio35.35%46.28%57.21%68.14%79.07%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4.115.326.507.668.799.9010.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.61%7.61%7.61%
Growth Rate-2.09%-1.09%-0.09%
Year 1 PV (M)4.894.944.99
Year 2 PV (M)5.505.625.73
Year 3 PV (M)5.966.156.34
Year 4 PV (M)6.306.566.83
Year 5 PV (M)6.526.867.21
PV of Terminal Value (M)149.58157.38165.50
Equity Value (M)178.76187.51196.60
Shares Outstanding (M)3.293.293.29
Fair Value$54.37$57.03$59.80
Upside / Downside-13.65%-9.43%-5.04%

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