Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $75.30 - $146.09 | $103.46 |
| Multi-Stage | $70.85 - $77.40 | $74.06 |
| Blended Fair Value | $88.76 | |
| Current Price | $48.33 | |
| Upside | 83.65% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 4.82% | 6.00% | 1.98 | 1.91 | 1.78 | 1.65 | 1.64 | 1.57 | 1.34 | 1.24 | 1.16 | 1.14 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 4.11% | 6.99% | 7.64% | 1.06% | 4.46% | 16.78% | 8.51% | 6.52% | 1.86% | 2.95% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 4.70% | 4.33% | 4.94% | 3.11% | 2.96% | 4.55% | 2.73% | 2.45% | 2.25% | 2.81% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 7,188.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 3,140.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 4,048.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 1,437.60 | 898.50 | 539.10 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 4,048.00 | 4,048.00 | 4,048.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -1,437.60 | -898.50 | -539.10 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 2,610.40 | 3,149.50 | 3,508.90 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 1,559.00 | 1,559.00 | 1,559.00 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 1.67 | 2.02 | 2.25 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 2.01 | 2.01 | 2.01 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 1.67 | 2.02 | 2.25 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 3.69 | 4.03 | 4.26 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 4.00% | 5.00% | 6.00% |
| Fair Value | $75.30 | $103.46 | $146.09 |
| Upside / Downside | 55.80% | 114.07% | 202.28% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 7,188.00 | 7,547.65 | 7,925.29 | 8,321.82 | 8,738.20 | 9,175.41 | 9,450.67 |
| Payout Ratio | 43.68% | 52.95% | 62.21% | 71.47% | 80.74% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 3,140.00 | 3,996.26 | 4,930.35 | 5,947.90 | 7,054.94 | 8,257.86 | 8,741.87 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 4.00% | 5.00% | 6.00% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 3,628.12 | 3,663.00 | 3,697.89 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 4,063.80 | 4,142.32 | 4,221.60 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 4,450.88 | 4,580.51 | 4,712.62 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 4,792.95 | 4,979.96 | 5,172.40 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 5,093.36 | 5,342.98 | 5,602.30 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 88,420.65 | 92,754.04 | 97,255.69 |
| Equity Value (M) | 110,449.77 | 115,462.82 | 120,662.49 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 1,559.00 | 1,559.00 | 1,559.00 |
| Fair Value | $70.85 | $74.06 | $77.40 |
| Upside / Downside | 46.59% | 53.24% | 60.14% |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATCOL | Atlas Corp. | 3.53% | $0.89 | 30.47% |
| AWC-R.BK | Asset World Corp Public Company Limited | 3.53% | $0.07 | 37.62% |
| CCRO3.SA | CCR S.A. | 3.53% | $0.48 | 66.57% |
| HMU.DE | HMS Bergbau AG | 3.53% | $1.69 | 29.89% |
| RAUTE.HE | Raute Oyj | 3.53% | $0.52 | 26.97% |
| RWE.DE | RWE AG | 3.53% | $1.66 | 46.76% |
| SNL.AX | Supply Network Limited | 3.53% | $1.13 | 67.28% |
| 0NHS.L | Nutrien Ltd. | 3.52% | $2.18 | 58.76% |
| CELL.MI | Cellularline S.p.A. | 3.52% | $0.09 | 34.70% |
| INFREA.ST | Infrea AB | 3.52% | $0.50 | 67.57% |
| ISSP.JK | PT Steel Pipe Industry of Indonesia Tbk | 3.52% | $15.00 | 19.85% |
| MGA | Magna International Inc. | 3.52% | $1.92 | 52.47% |
| PARP.PA | Groupe Partouche S.A. | 3.52% | $0.64 | 38.61% |
| PKI.TO | Parkland Corporation | 3.52% | $1.40 | 73.81% |
| SMU.SN | SMU S.A. | 3.52% | $5.49 | 46.99% |
| 161390.KS | Hankook Tire & Technology Co., Ltd. | 3.51% | $2,000.00 | 25.86% |
| 300360.SZ | Hangzhou Sunrise Technology Co., Ltd. | 3.51% | $0.61 | 52.03% |
| 5106.KL | Axis Real Estate Investment Trust | 3.51% | $0.07 | 56.99% |
| 601128.SS | Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd. | 3.51% | $0.25 | 19.56% |
| INTP.JK | PT Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk | 3.51% | $259.81 | 43.04% |
| RATO-A.ST | Ratos AB (publ) | 3.51% | $1.35 | 12.15% |
| 002887.SZ | Tianjin LVYIN Landscape and Ecology Construction Co., Ltd | 3.50% | $0.33 | 84.50% |
| 603062.SS | MEGA P&C Advanced Materials (Shanghai) Company Limited | 3.50% | $1.66 | 74.27% |
| CMCL | Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc | 3.50% | $0.92 | 35.87% |
| DLO | DLocal Limited | 3.50% | $0.49 | 87.74% |
| LAZ | Lazard Ltd | 3.50% | $1.74 | 67.48% |
| TWL.MI | TraWell Co S.p.A. | 3.50% | $0.21 | 28.69% |
| WJP.SI | VICOM Ltd | 3.50% | $0.06 | 66.95% |
| 005610.KS | SPC Samlip Co., Ltd. | 3.49% | $1,803.39 | 45.19% |
| 0RFL.L | VAT Group AG | 3.49% | $12.50 | 88.50% |
| 2030.HK | Cabbeen Fashion Limited | 3.49% | $0.05 | 63.92% |
| 5206.TWO | Kunyue Development Co., Ltd. | 3.49% | $1.18 | 21.91% |
| 5246.KL | Westports Holdings Berhad | 3.49% | $0.20 | 71.36% |
| 5989.T | H-One Co.,Ltd. | 3.49% | $49.44 | 14.49% |
| ACO-X.TO | ATCO Ltd. | 3.49% | $1.98 | 50.80% |
| CNI | Canadian National Railway Company | 3.49% | $3.50 | 50.64% |
| PEAB3.SA | Companhia de Participações Aliança da Bahia | 3.49% | $1.36 | 78.68% |
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| 055550.KS | Shinhan Financial Group Co., Ltd. | 3.48% | $2,668.74 | 26.55% |
| 0QK5.L | INFICON Holding AG | 3.48% | $3.44 | 43.54% |
| 6722.TWO | Whetron Electronics Co.,Ltd. | 3.48% | $1.99 | 24.71% |
| HOLM-A.ST | Holmen AB (publ) | 3.48% | $12.23 | 66.11% |
| 002206.SZ | Zhejiang Hailide New Material Co.,Ltd | 3.47% | $0.20 | 43.30% |
| 3004.SR | Northern Region Cement Company | 3.47% | $0.25 | 79.89% |
| 4129.TWO | United Orthopedic Corporation | 3.47% | $3.80 | 69.70% |
| 600133.SS | Wuhan East Lake High Technology Group Co., Ltd. | 3.47% | $0.32 | 87.27% |
| 601995.SS | China International Capital Corporation Limited | 3.47% | $1.21 | 62.35% |
| 6471.T | NSK Ltd. | 3.47% | $33.82 | 92.34% |
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