Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Sector

Unum Group (UNM)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - LifeSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$85.73 - $168.64$118.41
Multi-Stage$88.82 - $97.22$92.94
Blended Fair Value$105.67
Current Price$77.78
Upside35.86%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.28%6.40%1.681.571.441.361.311.301.221.111.040.99
YoY Growth--7.00%9.01%6.18%3.23%1.18%6.31%10.00%7.34%4.82%9.28%
Dividend Yield--2.06%2.92%3.64%4.31%4.72%8.66%3.52%2.33%2.21%3.19%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)913.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)306.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)607.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)182.62114.1468.48
Cash Retained (M)607.00607.00607.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-182.62-114.14-68.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)424.38492.86538.52
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)176.39176.39176.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.412.793.05
LTM Dividend per Share1.741.741.74
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.412.793.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.144.534.79
WACC / Discount Rate8.27%8.27%8.27%
Growth Rate3.28%4.28%5.28%
Fair Value$85.73$118.41$168.64
Upside / Downside10.22%52.23%116.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)913.10952.22993.011,035.551,079.911,126.171,159.96
Payout Ratio33.52%44.82%56.11%67.41%78.70%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)306.10426.77557.22698.06849.941,013.561,072.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.27%8.27%8.27%
Growth Rate3.28%4.28%5.28%
Year 1 PV (M)390.38394.16397.94
Year 2 PV (M)466.24475.31484.47
Year 3 PV (M)534.28549.95565.93
Year 4 PV (M)595.06618.45642.51
Year 5 PV (M)649.11681.15714.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,030.6913,673.8414,342.14
Equity Value (M)15,665.7616,392.8617,147.43
Shares Outstanding (M)176.39176.39176.39
Fair Value$88.82$92.94$97.22
Upside / Downside14.19%19.49%24.99%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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