Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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UMB Financial Corporation (UMBF)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$206.17 - $523.12$310.90
Multi-Stage$142.05 - $155.24$148.53
Blended Fair Value$229.71
Current Price$118.35
Upside94.10%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.35%6.43%1.161.121.081.000.910.890.880.780.740.69
YoY Growth--3.88%3.08%7.91%10.73%1.42%1.99%12.34%5.79%6.68%11.13%
Dividend Yield--1.15%1.32%1.87%1.03%0.98%1.93%1.34%1.08%0.98%1.34%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)607.04
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)114.53
(=) Cash Retained (M)492.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)121.4175.8845.53
Cash Retained (M)492.51492.51492.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-121.41-75.88-45.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)371.10416.63446.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)66.5666.5666.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.586.266.72
LTM Dividend per Share1.721.721.72
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.586.266.72
(=) Adjusted Dividend7.307.988.44
WACC / Discount Rate9.23%9.23%9.23%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$206.17$310.90$523.12
Upside / Downside74.20%162.70%342.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)607.04646.50688.52733.27780.94831.70856.65
Payout Ratio18.87%33.09%47.32%61.55%75.77%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)114.53213.95325.81451.31591.74748.53792.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.23%9.23%9.23%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)194.03195.86197.70
Year 2 PV (M)267.95273.06278.21
Year 3 PV (M)336.60346.26356.11
Year 4 PV (M)400.24415.63431.46
Year 5 PV (M)459.14481.31504.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,797.228,173.838,564.85
Equity Value (M)9,455.179,885.9510,332.67
Shares Outstanding (M)66.5666.5666.56
Fair Value$142.05$148.53$155.24
Upside / Downside20.03%25.50%31.17%

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