Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Ülker Bisküvi Sanayi A.S. (ULKER.IS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Food ConfectionersSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3,172.23 - $3,875.70$3,632.10
Multi-Stage$669.31 - $732.76$700.45
Blended Fair Value$2,166.27
Current Price$104.50
Upside1,972.99%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%10.11%0.990.540.540.750.020.000.280.190.310.27
YoY Growth--82.56%0.52%-28.14%4,037.00%0.00%-100.00%41.66%-37.37%15.80%-28.79%
Dividend Yield--0.86%0.53%1.73%4.88%0.09%0.00%1.59%0.88%1.68%1.28%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7,200.66
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,246.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,953.74
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,440.13900.08540.05
Cash Retained (M)3,953.743,953.743,953.74
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,440.13-900.08-540.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,513.613,053.663,413.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)369.49369.49369.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share6.808.269.24
LTM Dividend per Share8.798.798.79
(+) Excess Retained per Share6.808.269.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend15.5917.0518.03
WACC / Discount Rate6.02%6.02%6.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$3,172.23$3,632.10$3,875.70
Upside / Downside2,935.63%3,375.69%3,608.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7,200.667,668.708,167.178,698.039,263.409,865.5210,161.49
Payout Ratio45.09%54.07%63.06%72.04%81.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,246.924,146.745,149.826,265.787,505.068,878.979,399.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.02%6.02%6.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,874.613,911.343,948.06
Year 2 PV (M)4,496.084,581.724,668.17
Year 3 PV (M)5,111.395,258.125,407.63
Year 4 PV (M)5,720.575,940.566,166.84
Year 5 PV (M)6,323.666,629.106,946.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)221,775.82232,487.67243,609.49
Equity Value (M)247,302.13258,808.51270,746.42
Shares Outstanding (M)369.49369.49369.49
Fair Value$669.31$700.45$732.76
Upside / Downside540.49%570.29%601.20%

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