Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Industry

Sector

Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$476.58 - $1,235.43$723.55
Multi-Stage$331.01 - $361.49$345.97
Blended Fair Value$534.76
Current Price$933.64
Upside-42.72%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS49.47%65.30%15.094.3410.753.713.372.021.380.460.110.10
YoY Growth--247.41%-59.57%190.02%9.93%66.63%47.06%196.34%326.05%4.33%5.38%
Dividend Yield--1.14%0.76%1.90%0.82%0.64%1.60%0.52%0.27%0.12%0.22%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)476.39
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)147.79
(=) Cash Retained (M)328.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)95.2859.5535.73
Cash Retained (M)328.60328.60328.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-95.28-59.55-35.73
(=) Excess Retained (M)233.32269.05292.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)23.0123.0123.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share10.1411.6912.73
LTM Dividend per Share6.426.426.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share10.1411.6912.73
(=) Adjusted Dividend16.5618.1119.15
WACC / Discount Rate9.17%9.17%9.17%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$476.58$723.55$1,235.43
Upside / Downside-48.95%-22.50%32.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)476.39507.36540.33575.46612.86652.70672.28
Payout Ratio31.02%42.82%54.61%66.41%78.20%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)147.79217.24295.10382.15479.28587.43621.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.17%9.17%9.17%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)197.13199.00200.87
Year 2 PV (M)242.99247.62252.29
Year 3 PV (M)285.55293.75302.10
Year 4 PV (M)324.98337.47350.33
Year 5 PV (M)361.43378.89397.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,204.936,504.636,815.80
Equity Value (M)7,617.017,961.368,318.40
Shares Outstanding (M)23.0123.0123.01
Fair Value$331.01$345.97$361.49
Upside / Downside-64.55%-62.94%-61.28%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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