Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Thai Plaspac Public Company Limited (TPAC.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$126.43 - $243.41$228.12
Multi-Stage$37.93 - $41.52$39.69
Blended Fair Value$133.90
Current Price$7.90
Upside1,594.99%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%9.42%0.480.540.180.310.120.000.020.160.260.19
YoY Growth---10.28%196.75%-41.72%149.67%0.00%-100.00%-85.71%-37.14%37.19%-3.86%
Dividend Yield--6.04%3.77%1.21%2.24%1.09%0.00%0.23%1.09%3.63%2.59%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)400.33
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)147.96
(=) Cash Retained (M)252.37
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)80.0750.0430.02
Cash Retained (M)252.37252.37252.37
(-) Cash Required (M)-80.07-50.04-30.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)172.30202.33222.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)327.08327.08327.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.530.620.68
LTM Dividend per Share0.450.450.45
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.530.620.68
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.981.071.13
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$126.43$228.12$243.41
Upside / Downside1,500.40%2,787.54%2,981.20%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)400.33426.35454.06483.58515.01548.49564.94
Payout Ratio36.96%47.57%58.18%68.78%79.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)147.96202.81264.16332.62408.88493.64522.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)188.97190.76192.55
Year 2 PV (M)229.33233.70238.11
Year 3 PV (M)269.06276.79284.66
Year 4 PV (M)308.17320.02332.21
Year 5 PV (M)346.66363.41380.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,063.4611,597.8212,152.65
Equity Value (M)12,405.6512,982.4913,580.96
Shares Outstanding (M)327.08327.08327.08
Fair Value$37.93$39.69$41.52
Upside / Downside380.11%402.44%425.60%

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