Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Surya Toto Indonesia Tbk (TOTO.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$553.01 - $1,041.31$751.24
Multi-Stage$824.46 - $905.10$864.01
Blended Fair Value$807.63
Current Price$224.00
Upside260.55%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.89%3.39%20.0418.1916.229.542.8610.4617.107.6111.4011.17
YoY Growth--10.21%12.12%70.05%233.76%-72.68%-38.82%124.82%-33.26%2.07%-22.26%
Dividend Yield--9.37%8.34%6.14%4.22%1.35%5.23%4.30%2.03%2.46%1.80%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)376,436.45
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)135,925.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)240,510.59
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)75,287.2947,054.5628,232.73
Cash Retained (M)240,510.59240,510.59240,510.59
(-) Cash Required (M)-75,287.29-47,054.56-28,232.73
(=) Excess Retained (M)165,223.30193,456.03212,277.86
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)10,320.0010,320.0010,320.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share16.0118.7520.57
LTM Dividend per Share13.1713.1713.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share16.0118.7520.57
(=) Adjusted Dividend29.1831.9233.74
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate1.39%2.39%3.39%
Fair Value$553.01$751.24$1,041.31
Upside / Downside146.88%235.38%364.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)376,436.45385,425.96394,630.16404,054.15413,703.19423,582.66436,290.14
Payout Ratio36.11%46.89%57.67%68.44%79.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)135,925.86180,714.15227,564.06276,548.53327,742.77381,224.40403,568.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate1.39%2.39%3.39%
Year 1 PV (M)167,652.65169,306.22170,959.79
Year 2 PV (M)195,857.50199,740.07203,660.75
Year 3 PV (M)220,813.76227,412.13234,140.67
Year 4 PV (M)242,776.23252,496.97262,506.74
Year 5 PV (M)261,982.32275,159.49288,861.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,419,319.437,792,495.788,180,539.31
Equity Value (M)8,508,401.898,916,610.669,340,668.89
Shares Outstanding (M)10,320.0010,320.0010,320.00
Fair Value$824.46$864.01$905.10
Upside / Downside268.06%285.72%304.06%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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