Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Thai Optical Group Public Company Limited (TOG.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Instruments & SuppliesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$35.46 - $134.82$102.93
Multi-Stage$17.16 - $18.75$17.94
Blended Fair Value$60.43
Current Price$7.10
Upside751.16%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS15.21%7.33%0.650.630.520.330.150.320.330.400.400.31
YoY Growth--3.11%21.13%57.57%120.00%-53.12%-3.03%-17.50%0.00%29.03%-3.13%
Dividend Yield--7.26%5.34%5.59%3.42%3.21%9.88%6.63%5.63%4.04%4.53%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)321.55
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)213.22
(=) Cash Retained (M)108.33
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)64.3140.1924.12
Cash Retained (M)108.33108.33108.33
(-) Cash Required (M)-64.31-40.19-24.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)44.0268.1484.21
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)474.32474.32474.32
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.140.18
LTM Dividend per Share0.450.450.45
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.140.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.540.590.63
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$35.46$102.93$134.82
Upside / Downside399.37%1,349.69%1,798.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)321.55342.45364.71388.42413.67440.56453.77
Payout Ratio66.31%71.05%75.79%80.52%85.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)213.22243.31276.40312.77352.70396.50419.74

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)225.02227.15229.28
Year 2 PV (M)236.41240.91245.45
Year 3 PV (M)247.40254.50261.74
Year 4 PV (M)258.01267.93278.14
Year 5 PV (M)268.24281.20294.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,902.837,236.247,582.41
Equity Value (M)8,137.918,507.948,891.68
Shares Outstanding (M)474.32474.32474.32
Fair Value$17.16$17.94$18.75
Upside / Downside141.65%152.64%164.03%

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