Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Thantawan Industry Public Company Limited (THIP.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$338.43 - $651.35$610.41
Multi-Stage$102.37 - $112.02$107.11
Blended Fair Value$358.76
Current Price$24.60
Upside1,358.36%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS15.63%19.11%2.301.871.650.951.521.111.111.260.930.47
YoY Growth--22.66%13.68%72.61%-37.38%37.16%0.14%-11.85%35.01%100.00%16.67%
Dividend Yield--8.75%6.34%4.99%2.48%4.54%6.31%5.70%3.85%2.33%2.18%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)295.26
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)148.91
(=) Cash Retained (M)146.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)59.0536.9122.14
Cash Retained (M)146.35146.35146.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-59.05-36.91-22.14
(=) Excess Retained (M)87.30109.44124.21
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)90.1590.1590.15
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.971.211.38
LTM Dividend per Share1.651.651.65
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.971.211.38
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.622.873.03
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$338.43$610.41$651.35
Upside / Downside1,275.71%2,381.33%2,547.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)295.26314.46334.90356.66379.85404.54416.67
Payout Ratio50.43%58.35%66.26%74.17%82.09%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)148.91183.48221.90264.55311.80364.08385.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)170.95172.57174.19
Year 2 PV (M)192.65196.32200.02
Year 3 PV (M)214.00220.14226.40
Year 4 PV (M)235.01244.05253.34
Year 5 PV (M)255.69268.04280.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,160.658,554.818,964.06
Equity Value (M)9,228.949,655.9310,098.88
Shares Outstanding (M)90.1590.1590.15
Fair Value$102.37$107.11$112.02
Upside / Downside316.14%335.39%355.36%

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