Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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TFF Group (TFF.PA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$417.68 - $804.15$753.61
Multi-Stage$124.78 - $136.63$130.60
Blended Fair Value$442.10
Current Price$20.90
Upside2,015.32%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS12.51%12.09%0.630.610.400.350.350.350.350.350.200.20
YoY Growth--3.45%53.00%14.32%-0.43%0.05%-0.04%0.40%75.00%-1.14%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.03%1.43%0.96%1.18%1.20%1.25%0.88%0.88%0.56%0.85%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)87.63
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)26.64
(=) Cash Retained (M)60.99
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)17.5310.956.57
Cash Retained (M)60.9960.9960.99
(-) Cash Required (M)-17.53-10.95-6.57
(=) Excess Retained (M)43.4750.0454.42
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)21.6721.6721.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.012.312.51
LTM Dividend per Share1.231.231.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.012.312.51
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.233.543.74
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$417.68$753.61$804.15
Upside / Downside1,898.48%3,505.77%3,747.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)87.6393.3299.39105.85112.73120.06123.66
Payout Ratio30.40%42.32%54.24%66.16%78.08%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)26.6439.4953.9170.0388.02108.05114.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)36.8037.1537.49
Year 2 PV (M)46.8047.6948.59
Year 3 PV (M)56.6558.2759.93
Year 4 PV (M)66.3468.8971.52
Year 5 PV (M)75.8879.5583.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,421.712,538.672,660.12
Equity Value (M)2,704.172,830.222,961.00
Shares Outstanding (M)21.6721.6721.67
Fair Value$124.78$130.60$136.63
Upside / Downside497.03%524.86%553.74%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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