Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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The Community Financial Corporation (TCFC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$323.37 - $1,033.13$968.19
Multi-Stage$135.10 - $147.95$141.41
Blended Fair Value$554.80
Current Price$33.13
Upside1,574.61%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2022202120202019201820172016201520142013
DPS15.78%10.19%0.660.560.500.470.380.320.320.340.360.28
YoY Growth--18.39%12.45%5.66%23.35%19.90%-0.55%-5.32%-6.76%30.15%11.07%
Dividend Yield--2.00%1.39%1.46%2.14%1.36%0.86%0.89%1.60%1.82%1.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)29.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3.74
(=) Cash Retained (M)25.62
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5.873.672.20
Cash Retained (M)25.6225.6225.62
(-) Cash Required (M)-5.87-3.67-2.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)19.7521.9523.42
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5.655.655.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.493.884.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.660.660.66
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.493.884.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.164.554.81
WACC / Discount Rate6.86%6.86%6.86%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$323.37$968.19$1,033.13
Upside / Downside876.05%2,822.41%3,018.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)29.3631.2633.3035.4637.7740.2241.43
Payout Ratio12.72%28.18%43.63%59.09%74.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3.748.8114.5320.9528.1536.2038.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.86%6.86%6.86%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)8.178.248.32
Year 2 PV (M)12.4912.7212.96
Year 3 PV (M)16.6917.1717.66
Year 4 PV (M)20.7921.5922.42
Year 5 PV (M)24.7925.9827.23
PV of Terminal Value (M)680.49713.36747.48
Equity Value (M)763.42799.08836.07
Shares Outstanding (M)5.655.655.65
Fair Value$135.10$141.41$147.95
Upside / Downside307.77%326.82%346.58%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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