Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $17.95 - $25.09 | $21.51 |
| Multi-Stage | $51.16 - $56.55 | $53.80 |
| Blended Fair Value | $37.65 | |
| Current Price | $28.24 | |
| Upside | 33.34% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -11.23% | -1.50% | 1.14 | 1.13 | 1.37 | 2.09 | 2.08 | 2.07 | 1.86 | 1.67 | 1.64 | 1.42 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 0.88% | -17.48% | -34.57% | 0.75% | 0.46% | 11.02% | 11.40% | 2.04% | 15.66% | 6.78% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 4.03% | 6.45% | 7.11% | 11.72% | 9.09% | 9.39% | 7.72% | 6.21% | 5.22% | 4.79% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 22,245.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 8,205.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 14,040.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 4,449.00 | 2,780.63 | 1,668.38 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 14,040.00 | 14,040.00 | 14,040.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -4,449.00 | -2,780.63 | -1,668.38 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 9,591.00 | 11,259.38 | 12,371.63 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 7,204.25 | 7,204.25 | 7,204.25 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 1.33 | 1.56 | 1.72 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1.14 | 1.14 | 1.14 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 1.33 | 1.56 | 1.72 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 2.47 | 2.70 | 2.86 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.50% | 6.50% | 6.50% |
| Growth Rate | -6.39% | -5.39% | -4.39% |
| Fair Value | $17.95 | $21.51 | $25.09 |
| Upside / Downside | -36.45% | -23.84% | -11.16% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 22,245.00 | 21,046.96 | 19,913.43 | 18,840.96 | 17,826.25 | 16,866.18 | 17,372.17 |
| Payout Ratio | 36.88% | 47.51% | 58.13% | 68.75% | 79.38% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 8,205.00 | 9,998.94 | 11,575.84 | 12,953.89 | 14,149.93 | 15,179.56 | 16,069.26 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.50% | 6.50% | 6.50% |
| Growth Rate | -6.39% | -5.39% | -4.39% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 9,289.51 | 9,388.74 | 9,487.98 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 9,991.50 | 10,206.11 | 10,422.99 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 10,387.66 | 10,724.11 | 11,067.76 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 10,541.71 | 10,999.41 | 11,471.85 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 10,506.43 | 11,079.70 | 11,677.73 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 317,852.13 | 335,195.40 | 353,287.60 |
| Equity Value (M) | 368,568.94 | 387,593.47 | 407,415.90 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 7,204.25 | 7,204.25 | 7,204.25 |
| Fair Value | $51.16 | $53.80 | $56.55 |
| Upside / Downside | 81.16% | 90.51% | 100.26% |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATCOL | Atlas Corp. | 3.53% | $0.89 | 30.47% |
| AWC-R.BK | Asset World Corp Public Company Limited | 3.53% | $0.07 | 37.62% |
| CCRO3.SA | CCR S.A. | 3.53% | $0.48 | 66.57% |
| HMU.DE | HMS Bergbau AG | 3.53% | $1.69 | 29.89% |
| RAUTE.HE | Raute Oyj | 3.53% | $0.52 | 26.97% |
| RWE.DE | RWE AG | 3.53% | $1.66 | 46.76% |
| SNL.AX | Supply Network Limited | 3.53% | $1.13 | 67.28% |
| 0NHS.L | Nutrien Ltd. | 3.52% | $2.18 | 58.76% |
| CELL.MI | Cellularline S.p.A. | 3.52% | $0.09 | 34.70% |
| INFREA.ST | Infrea AB | 3.52% | $0.50 | 67.57% |
| ISSP.JK | PT Steel Pipe Industry of Indonesia Tbk | 3.52% | $15.00 | 19.85% |
| MGA | Magna International Inc. | 3.52% | $1.92 | 52.47% |
| PARP.PA | Groupe Partouche S.A. | 3.52% | $0.64 | 38.61% |
| PKI.TO | Parkland Corporation | 3.52% | $1.40 | 73.81% |
| SMU.SN | SMU S.A. | 3.52% | $5.49 | 46.99% |
| 161390.KS | Hankook Tire & Technology Co., Ltd. | 3.51% | $2,000.00 | 25.86% |
| 300360.SZ | Hangzhou Sunrise Technology Co., Ltd. | 3.51% | $0.61 | 52.03% |
| 5106.KL | Axis Real Estate Investment Trust | 3.51% | $0.07 | 56.99% |
| 601128.SS | Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd. | 3.51% | $0.25 | 19.56% |
| INTP.JK | PT Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk | 3.51% | $259.81 | 43.04% |
| RATO-A.ST | Ratos AB (publ) | 3.51% | $1.35 | 12.15% |
| 002887.SZ | Tianjin LVYIN Landscape and Ecology Construction Co., Ltd | 3.50% | $0.33 | 84.50% |
| 603062.SS | MEGA P&C Advanced Materials (Shanghai) Company Limited | 3.50% | $1.66 | 74.27% |
| CMCL | Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc | 3.50% | $0.92 | 35.87% |
| DLO | DLocal Limited | 3.50% | $0.49 | 87.74% |
| LAZ | Lazard Ltd | 3.50% | $1.74 | 67.48% |
| TWL.MI | TraWell Co S.p.A. | 3.50% | $0.21 | 28.69% |
| WJP.SI | VICOM Ltd | 3.50% | $0.06 | 66.95% |
| 005610.KS | SPC Samlip Co., Ltd. | 3.49% | $1,803.39 | 45.19% |
| 0RFL.L | VAT Group AG | 3.49% | $12.50 | 88.50% |
| 2030.HK | Cabbeen Fashion Limited | 3.49% | $0.05 | 63.92% |
| 5206.TWO | Kunyue Development Co., Ltd. | 3.49% | $1.18 | 21.91% |
| 5246.KL | Westports Holdings Berhad | 3.49% | $0.20 | 71.36% |
| 5989.T | H-One Co.,Ltd. | 3.49% | $49.44 | 14.49% |
| ACO-X.TO | ATCO Ltd. | 3.49% | $1.98 | 50.80% |
| CNI | Canadian National Railway Company | 3.49% | $3.50 | 50.64% |
| PEAB3.SA | Companhia de Participações Aliança da Bahia | 3.49% | $1.36 | 78.68% |
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| 055550.KS | Shinhan Financial Group Co., Ltd. | 3.48% | $2,668.74 | 26.55% |
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| 6722.TWO | Whetron Electronics Co.,Ltd. | 3.48% | $1.99 | 24.71% |
| HOLM-A.ST | Holmen AB (publ) | 3.48% | $12.23 | 66.11% |
| 002206.SZ | Zhejiang Hailide New Material Co.,Ltd | 3.47% | $0.20 | 43.30% |
| 3004.SR | Northern Region Cement Company | 3.47% | $0.25 | 79.89% |
| 4129.TWO | United Orthopedic Corporation | 3.47% | $3.80 | 69.70% |
| 600133.SS | Wuhan East Lake High Technology Group Co., Ltd. | 3.47% | $0.32 | 87.27% |
| 601995.SS | China International Capital Corporation Limited | 3.47% | $1.21 | 62.35% |
| 6471.T | NSK Ltd. | 3.47% | $33.82 | 92.34% |
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