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Definitive Analysis

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SunCoke Energy, Inc. (SXC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: CoalSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$19.18 - $56.20$30.21
Multi-Stage$13.34 - $14.55$13.94
Blended Fair Value$22.07
Current Price$8.16
Upside170.52%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS49.12%25.76%0.440.360.280.230.230.060.000.000.000.33
YoY Growth--22.48%30.08%17.41%1.01%290.20%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%636.84%
Dividend Yield--4.77%3.18%3.07%2.64%3.32%1.55%0.00%0.00%0.00%5.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)65.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)41.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)23.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13.028.144.88
Cash Retained (M)23.8023.8023.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-13.02-8.14-4.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)10.7815.6618.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)85.6085.6085.60
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.180.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.480.480.48
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.180.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.610.670.70
WACC / Discount Rate8.85%8.85%8.85%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$19.18$30.21$56.20
Upside / Downside135.11%270.25%588.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)65.1069.3373.8478.6483.7589.1991.87
Payout Ratio63.44%68.75%74.06%79.38%84.69%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)41.3047.6754.6962.4270.9380.2784.98

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.85%8.85%8.85%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)43.3843.7944.20
Year 2 PV (M)45.3046.1647.03
Year 3 PV (M)47.0548.4049.78
Year 4 PV (M)48.6650.5352.46
Year 5 PV (M)50.1252.5455.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)907.67951.51997.03
Equity Value (M)1,142.181,192.941,245.56
Shares Outstanding (M)85.6085.6085.60
Fair Value$13.34$13.94$14.55
Upside / Downside63.52%70.79%78.32%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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