Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. (SWX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated GasSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$309.45 - $1,277.59$795.96
Multi-Stage$153.67 - $168.07$160.74
Blended Fair Value$478.35
Current Price$74.39
Upside543.03%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.89%10.37%2.462.422.221.911.741.611.391.281.151.03
YoY Growth--1.83%8.73%16.16%10.13%8.07%15.85%8.80%10.58%12.21%12.03%
Dividend Yield--3.43%3.20%3.56%2.44%2.53%2.31%1.68%1.89%1.39%1.56%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)463.92
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)178.34
(=) Cash Retained (M)285.58
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)92.7857.9934.79
Cash Retained (M)285.58285.58285.58
(-) Cash Required (M)-92.78-57.99-34.79
(=) Excess Retained (M)192.80227.59250.79
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)72.2272.2272.22
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.673.153.47
LTM Dividend per Share2.472.472.47
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.673.153.47
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.145.625.94
WACC / Discount Rate7.25%7.25%7.25%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$309.45$795.96$1,277.59
Upside / Downside315.99%969.98%1,617.42%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)463.92494.07526.19560.39596.82635.61654.68
Payout Ratio38.44%48.75%59.06%69.38%79.69%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)178.34240.88310.79388.78475.59572.05605.58

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.25%7.25%7.25%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)222.48224.59226.70
Year 2 PV (M)265.13270.18275.28
Year 3 PV (M)306.33315.13324.09
Year 4 PV (M)346.12359.43373.12
Year 5 PV (M)384.52403.09422.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,573.0510,035.4410,515.51
Equity Value (M)11,097.6411,607.8612,137.08
Shares Outstanding (M)72.2272.2272.22
Fair Value$153.67$160.74$168.07
Upside / Downside106.58%116.08%125.93%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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