Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Wineries & DistilleriesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$101.68 - $188.54$137.30
Multi-Stage$131.34 - $143.80$137.45
Blended Fair Value$137.38
Current Price$151.26
Upside-9.18%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS5.15%0.00%4.093.653.293.203.213.183.122.241.761.35
YoY Growth--11.93%11.25%2.57%-0.35%1.02%2.06%39.39%26.98%30.42%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.29%1.46%1.35%1.30%1.35%1.84%1.77%1.00%0.96%0.88%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,222.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)724.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)498.40
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)244.54152.8491.70
Cash Retained (M)498.40498.40498.40
(-) Cash Required (M)-244.54-152.84-91.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)253.86345.56406.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)178.90178.90178.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.421.932.27
LTM Dividend per Share4.054.054.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.421.932.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.475.986.32
WACC / Discount Rate7.61%7.61%7.61%
Growth Rate2.12%3.12%4.12%
Fair Value$101.68$137.30$188.54
Upside / Downside-32.78%-9.23%24.65%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,222.701,260.801,300.091,340.601,382.371,425.451,468.21
Payout Ratio59.24%65.39%71.54%77.70%83.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)724.30824.44930.121,041.581,159.081,282.901,358.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.61%7.61%7.61%
Growth Rate2.12%3.12%4.12%
Year 1 PV (M)758.73766.16773.59
Year 2 PV (M)787.75803.26818.91
Year 3 PV (M)811.84835.93860.48
Year 4 PV (M)831.42864.47898.49
Year 5 PV (M)846.89889.17933.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)19,459.1120,430.7521,440.82
Equity Value (M)23,495.7324,589.7325,725.42
Shares Outstanding (M)178.90178.90178.90
Fair Value$131.34$137.45$143.80
Upside / Downside-13.17%-9.13%-4.93%

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