Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Santos Limited (STO.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$38.60 - $139.69$122.18
Multi-Stage$18.18 - $19.87$19.01
Blended Fair Value$70.60
Current Price$5.04
Upside1,300.73%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS31.61%19.98%0.300.240.160.070.040.080.020.000.010.05
YoY Growth--27.54%44.96%142.53%62.50%-45.82%243.84%0.00%-100.00%-72.53%-2.38%
Dividend Yield--7.36%4.60%3.38%1.48%0.86%1.34%0.58%0.00%0.46%1.79%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,289.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,605.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)684.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)457.80286.13171.68
Cash Retained (M)684.00684.00684.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-457.80-286.13-171.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)226.20397.88512.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,258.783,258.783,258.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.120.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.490.490.49
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.120.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.560.610.65
WACC / Discount Rate7.04%7.04%7.04%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$38.60$122.18$139.69
Upside / Downside665.94%2,324.30%2,671.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,289.002,437.792,596.242,765.002,944.723,136.133,230.21
Payout Ratio70.12%74.09%78.07%82.05%86.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,605.001,806.262,026.912,268.602,533.162,822.522,987.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.04%7.04%7.04%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,671.691,687.531,703.38
Year 2 PV (M)1,736.131,769.201,802.58
Year 3 PV (M)1,798.381,850.001,902.61
Year 4 PV (M)1,858.481,929.952,003.47
Year 5 PV (M)1,916.492,009.062,105.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)50,271.6852,699.8255,220.90
Equity Value (M)59,252.8561,945.5764,738.09
Shares Outstanding (M)3,258.783,258.783,258.78
Fair Value$18.18$19.01$19.87
Upside / Downside260.76%277.16%294.16%

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