Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Vinci S.A. (SQU.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,496.65 - $3,243.63$3,039.76
Multi-Stage$495.71 - $542.27$518.56
Blended Fair Value$1,779.16
Current Price$125.10
Upside1,322.19%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.31%7.33%4.473.993.182.661.212.622.422.081.831.77
YoY Growth--12.03%25.36%19.76%120.17%-53.86%8.12%16.21%13.78%3.24%-19.57%
Dividend Yield--4.48%3.51%3.41%2.86%1.48%2.64%3.36%2.45%2.83%3.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)9,372.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,247.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,125.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,874.401,171.50702.90
Cash Retained (M)4,125.004,125.004,125.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,874.40-1,171.50-702.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,250.602,953.503,422.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)574.62574.62574.62
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.925.145.96
LTM Dividend per Share9.139.139.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.925.145.96
(=) Adjusted Dividend13.0514.2715.09
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,496.65$3,039.76$3,243.63
Upside / Downside1,096.37%2,329.86%2,492.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)9,372.009,981.1810,629.9611,320.9012,056.7612,840.4513,225.67
Payout Ratio55.99%62.79%69.59%76.39%83.20%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,247.006,267.067,397.558,648.5310,030.8911,556.4112,233.74

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)5,833.705,889.005,944.29
Year 2 PV (M)6,409.876,531.966,655.20
Year 3 PV (M)6,975.647,175.897,379.93
Year 4 PV (M)7,531.167,820.788,118.69
Year 5 PV (M)8,076.558,466.658,871.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)250,015.69262,091.55274,629.57
Equity Value (M)284,842.61297,975.82311,599.36
Shares Outstanding (M)574.62574.62574.62
Fair Value$495.71$518.56$542.27
Upside / Downside296.25%314.52%333.47%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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