Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Supreme Distribution Public Company Limited (SPREME.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Information Technology ServicesSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.08 - $1.65$1.34
Multi-Stage$2.39 - $2.63$2.51
Blended Fair Value$1.93
Current Price$1.45
Upside32.77%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%0.040.520.640.270.080.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---91.43%-18.02%135.00%233.33%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.06%21.70%26.46%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)89.82
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)81.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)8.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)17.9611.236.74
Cash Retained (M)8.428.428.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-17.96-11.23-6.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)-9.54-2.811.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)740.00740.00740.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.000.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.000.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.100.110.11
WACC / Discount Rate6.82%6.82%6.82%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.08$1.34$1.65
Upside / Downside-25.62%-7.31%13.48%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)89.8288.9288.0387.1586.2885.4287.98
Payout Ratio90.62%90.50%90.37%90.25%90.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)81.4080.4779.5678.6677.7676.8881.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.82%6.82%6.82%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)74.5775.3376.10
Year 2 PV (M)68.3269.7271.14
Year 3 PV (M)62.5964.5266.50
Year 4 PV (M)57.3459.7262.17
Year 5 PV (M)52.5355.2758.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,454.361,530.101,608.95
Equity Value (M)1,769.721,854.661,942.96
Shares Outstanding (M)740.00740.00740.00
Fair Value$2.39$2.51$2.63
Upside / Downside64.93%72.85%81.08%

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