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Definitive Analysis

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Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Company Limited (SOL.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: CoalSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$25.03 - $39.05$31.49
Multi-Stage$60.90 - $66.97$63.87
Blended Fair Value$47.68
Current Price$40.58
Upside17.50%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS20.24%8.91%1.081.001.030.710.440.430.640.540.450.46
YoY Growth--8.07%-3.19%44.66%60.63%3.39%-33.20%18.27%20.05%-0.75%-0.75%
Dividend Yield--2.66%2.81%3.13%2.76%1.36%2.19%2.83%2.49%2.56%2.58%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)863.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)683.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)179.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)172.60107.8864.73
Cash Retained (M)179.90179.90179.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-172.60-107.88-64.73
(=) Excess Retained (M)7.3072.03115.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)329.35329.35329.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.220.35
LTM Dividend per Share2.072.072.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.220.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.102.292.42
WACC / Discount Rate6.21%6.21%6.21%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$25.03$31.49$39.05
Upside / Downside-38.32%-22.39%-3.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)863.00854.37845.83837.37828.99820.70845.33
Payout Ratio79.15%81.32%83.49%85.66%87.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)683.10694.80706.20717.30728.11738.63781.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.21%6.21%6.21%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)647.58654.19660.80
Year 2 PV (M)613.48626.06638.77
Year 3 PV (M)580.78598.74617.07
Year 4 PV (M)549.47572.24595.71
Year 5 PV (M)519.53546.58574.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)17,146.3118,039.1618,968.82
Equity Value (M)20,057.1421,036.9722,055.92
Shares Outstanding (M)329.35329.35329.35
Fair Value$60.90$63.87$66.97
Upside / Downside50.07%57.40%65.03%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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