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Definitive Analysis

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Srinanaporn Marketing Public Company Limited (SNNP.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.09 - $41.06$23.25
Multi-Stage$18.40 - $20.15$19.26
Blended Fair Value$21.25
Current Price$9.00
Upside136.17%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS21.39%0.00%0.520.480.330.100.000.200.850.000.000.00
YoY Growth--8.21%44.39%220.05%0.00%-100.00%-76.74%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.33%2.76%1.36%0.65%0.00%2.14%9.21%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)597.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)551.36
(=) Cash Retained (M)46.44
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)119.5674.7244.83
Cash Retained (M)46.4446.4446.44
(-) Cash Required (M)-119.56-74.72-44.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)-73.12-28.291.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)923.58923.58923.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.08-0.030.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.600.600.60
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.08-0.030.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.520.570.60
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate2.78%3.78%4.78%
Fair Value$15.09$23.25$41.06
Upside / Downside67.62%158.34%356.20%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)597.80620.40643.86668.21693.48719.71741.30
Payout Ratio92.23%91.79%91.34%90.89%90.45%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)551.36569.44588.10607.36627.23647.74685.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate2.78%3.78%4.78%
Year 1 PV (M)530.48535.64540.80
Year 2 PV (M)510.38520.36530.44
Year 3 PV (M)491.03505.51520.26
Year 4 PV (M)472.41491.06510.26
Year 5 PV (M)454.48477.02500.45
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,536.4015,257.4516,006.82
Equity Value (M)16,995.1817,787.0418,609.03
Shares Outstanding (M)923.58923.58923.58
Fair Value$18.40$19.26$20.15
Upside / Downside104.46%113.99%123.88%

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