Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Industry

Sector

Schneider National, Inc. (SNDR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: TruckingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.99 - $11.23$8.90
Multi-Stage$9.88 - $10.82$10.34
Blended Fair Value$9.62
Current Price$21.16
Upside-54.53%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.40%12.40%0.380.360.320.282.270.240.230.140.180.14
YoY Growth--4.72%14.18%12.30%-87.60%841.18%4.42%59.61%-18.44%24.27%21.55%
Dividend Yield--1.66%1.62%1.18%1.11%9.10%1.25%1.08%0.56%0.94%0.75%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)114.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)67.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)47.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)22.8214.268.56
Cash Retained (M)47.1047.1047.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-22.82-14.26-8.56
(=) Excess Retained (M)24.2832.8438.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)175.98175.98175.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.190.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.380.380.38
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.190.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.520.570.60
WACC / Discount Rate8.49%8.49%8.49%
Growth Rate0.99%1.99%2.99%
Fair Value$6.99$8.90$11.23
Upside / Downside-66.99%-57.92%-46.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)114.10116.37118.69121.05123.46125.91129.69
Payout Ratio58.72%64.98%71.23%77.49%83.74%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)67.0075.6184.5493.80103.39113.32119.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.49%8.49%8.49%
Growth Rate0.99%1.99%2.99%
Year 1 PV (M)69.0169.7070.38
Year 2 PV (M)70.4371.8373.25
Year 3 PV (M)71.3273.4675.64
Year 4 PV (M)71.7574.6377.60
Year 5 PV (M)71.7875.4079.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,384.541,454.461,527.18
Equity Value (M)1,738.831,819.491,903.22
Shares Outstanding (M)175.98175.98175.98
Fair Value$9.88$10.34$10.82
Upside / Downside-53.30%-51.14%-48.89%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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