Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Analysis Mode

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Sector

ALPS/Smith Short Duration Bond Investor (SMRSX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset Management - BondsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.35 - $1.90$1.62
Multi-Stage$4.73 - $5.22$4.97
Blended Fair Value$3.29
Current Price$9.98
Upside-66.99%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS0.00%-4.32%0.220.260.290.270.250.000.290.320.320.33
YoY Growth---17.16%-11.65%10.74%7.70%0.00%-100.00%-8.77%-1.78%-3.20%-0.40%
Dividend Yield--2.16%2.57%2.82%2.51%2.41%0.00%3.10%3.39%3.46%3.57%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)13.27
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)13.11
(=) Cash Retained (M)0.16
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.651.661.00
Cash Retained (M)0.160.160.16
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.65-1.66-1.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)-2.50-1.50-0.84
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)60.8660.8660.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.04-0.02-0.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.220.220.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.04-0.02-0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.170.190.20
WACC / Discount Rate5.82%5.82%5.82%
Growth Rate-6.32%-5.32%-4.32%
Fair Value$1.35$1.62$1.90
Upside / Downside-86.52%-83.76%-80.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)13.2712.5611.8911.2610.6610.0910.40
Payout Ratio98.81%97.05%95.28%93.52%91.76%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)13.1112.1911.3310.539.789.089.62

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.82%5.82%5.82%
Growth Rate-6.32%-5.32%-4.32%
Year 1 PV (M)11.4011.5211.64
Year 2 PV (M)9.9110.1210.34
Year 3 PV (M)8.618.899.17
Year 4 PV (M)7.487.808.14
Year 5 PV (M)6.496.857.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)243.85257.14271.01
Equity Value (M)287.74302.32317.52
Shares Outstanding (M)60.8660.8660.86
Fair Value$4.73$4.97$5.22
Upside / Downside-52.63%-50.23%-47.73%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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