Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Summit Midstream Partners, LP (SMLP)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas MidstreamSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$53.82 - $73.82$63.94
Multi-Stage$104.75 - $115.69$110.11
Blended Fair Value$87.02
Current Price$28.50
Upside205.35%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS-49.44%-22.96%0.620.310.000.0014.1818.7216.1014.8513.5211.16
YoY Growth--99.94%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-24.27%16.31%8.44%9.81%21.15%32.88%
Dividend Yield--2.17%2.02%0.00%0.00%154.95%12.56%7.64%4.12%5.31%2.31%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)108.14
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6.51
(=) Cash Retained (M)101.63
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)21.6313.528.11
Cash Retained (M)101.63101.63101.63
(-) Cash Required (M)-21.63-13.52-8.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)80.0088.1193.52
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)10.5310.5310.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share7.608.378.89
LTM Dividend per Share0.620.620.62
(+) Excess Retained per Share7.608.378.89
(=) Adjusted Dividend8.228.999.50
WACC / Discount Rate8.52%8.52%8.52%
Growth Rate-5.85%-4.85%-3.85%
Fair Value$53.82$63.94$73.82
Upside / Downside88.85%124.35%159.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)108.14102.8997.9093.1588.6384.3386.86
Payout Ratio6.02%22.82%39.61%56.41%73.20%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6.5123.4838.7852.5464.8875.8980.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.52%8.52%8.52%
Growth Rate-5.85%-4.85%-3.85%
Year 1 PV (M)21.4121.6321.86
Year 2 PV (M)32.2432.9333.62
Year 3 PV (M)39.8341.1142.42
Year 4 PV (M)44.8446.7748.77
Year 5 PV (M)47.8250.4253.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)916.35966.071,017.91
Equity Value (M)1,102.491,158.921,217.71
Shares Outstanding (M)10.5310.5310.53
Fair Value$104.75$110.11$115.69
Upside / Downside267.53%286.35%305.94%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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