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Definitive Analysis

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Smartgroup Corporation Ltd (SIQ.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty Business ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.13 - $19.64$15.50
Multi-Stage$25.62 - $28.14$26.86
Blended Fair Value$21.18
Current Price$7.37
Upside187.40%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-4.32%0.00%0.510.450.670.500.390.630.390.300.160.11
YoY Growth--11.77%-32.84%33.60%29.02%-38.03%60.86%32.14%84.50%45.49%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.51%5.26%13.21%6.51%5.72%9.09%4.42%2.73%2.56%2.16%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)146.66
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)113.06
(=) Cash Retained (M)33.61
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)29.3318.3311.00
Cash Retained (M)33.6133.6133.61
(-) Cash Required (M)-29.33-18.33-11.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)4.2715.2722.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)130.09130.09130.09
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.120.17
LTM Dividend per Share0.870.870.87
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.120.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.900.991.04
WACC / Discount Rate6.45%6.45%6.45%
Growth Rate-0.92%0.08%1.08%
Fair Value$12.13$15.50$19.64
Upside / Downside64.57%110.37%166.46%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)146.66146.78146.90147.02147.13147.25151.67
Payout Ratio77.09%79.67%82.25%84.83%87.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)113.06116.94120.83124.72128.62132.53140.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.45%6.45%6.45%
Growth Rate-0.92%0.08%1.08%
Year 1 PV (M)108.76109.85110.95
Year 2 PV (M)104.51106.63108.77
Year 3 PV (M)100.33103.40106.53
Year 4 PV (M)96.23100.17104.24
Year 5 PV (M)92.2296.97101.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,831.142,976.933,128.66
Equity Value (M)3,333.193,493.953,661.06
Shares Outstanding (M)130.09130.09130.09
Fair Value$25.62$26.86$28.14
Upside / Downside247.67%264.43%281.86%

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