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Definitive Analysis

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Selective Insurance Group, Inc. (SIGI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - Property & CasualtySector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$274.91 - $1,321.11$595.56
Multi-Stage$146.26 - $160.03$153.02
Blended Fair Value$374.29
Current Price$81.07
Upside361.69%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.24%11.57%1.391.211.090.980.890.780.690.610.550.51
YoY Growth--15.05%10.32%11.28%10.37%14.29%13.25%13.64%9.74%8.71%9.23%
Dividend Yield--1.52%1.13%1.15%1.10%1.23%1.57%1.08%1.00%1.17%1.39%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)406.71
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)90.26
(=) Cash Retained (M)316.46
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)81.3450.8430.50
Cash Retained (M)316.46316.46316.46
(-) Cash Required (M)-81.34-50.84-30.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)235.12265.62285.96
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)61.2361.2361.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.844.344.67
LTM Dividend per Share1.471.471.47
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.844.344.67
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.315.816.14
WACC / Discount Rate7.54%7.54%7.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$274.91$595.56$1,321.11
Upside / Downside239.11%634.63%1,529.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)406.71433.15461.31491.29523.22557.23573.95
Payout Ratio22.19%35.75%49.31%62.88%76.44%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)90.26154.86227.49308.91399.94501.51530.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.54%7.54%7.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)142.65144.01145.36
Year 2 PV (M)193.03196.71200.42
Year 3 PV (M)241.45248.38255.45
Year 4 PV (M)287.96299.04310.43
Year 5 PV (M)332.63348.69365.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,756.968,131.638,520.63
Equity Value (M)8,954.709,368.469,797.66
Shares Outstanding (M)61.2361.2361.23
Fair Value$146.26$153.02$160.03
Upside / Downside80.41%88.75%97.39%

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