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Definitive Analysis

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Schaeffler AG (SHAF.SW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.44 - $11.60$8.60
Multi-Stage$11.25 - $12.33$11.78
Blended Fair Value$10.19
Current Price$7.55
Upside34.93%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS-3.36%77.24%0.460.510.250.450.550.550.500.500.380.00
YoY Growth---8.93%103.64%-44.63%-18.13%0.28%10.00%0.30%31.08%25,000.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.15%6.90%3.49%6.83%7.99%7.37%4.07%4.28%3.34%0.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)307.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)306.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)61.4038.3823.03
Cash Retained (M)1.001.001.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-61.40-38.38-23.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)-60.40-37.38-22.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)664.50664.50664.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.09-0.06-0.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.460.460.46
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.09-0.06-0.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.370.400.43
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate0.75%1.75%2.75%
Fair Value$6.44$8.60$11.60
Upside / Downside-14.75%13.84%53.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)307.00312.38317.86323.44329.11334.88344.93
Payout Ratio99.67%97.74%95.80%93.87%91.93%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)306.00305.32304.53303.61302.57301.40319.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate0.75%1.75%2.75%
Year 1 PV (M)283.77286.58289.40
Year 2 PV (M)263.04268.29273.59
Year 3 PV (M)243.73251.06258.54
Year 4 PV (M)225.75234.84244.21
Year 5 PV (M)208.99219.57230.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,250.416,566.816,895.90
Equity Value (M)7,475.697,827.168,192.21
Shares Outstanding (M)664.50664.50664.50
Fair Value$11.25$11.78$12.33
Upside / Downside49.01%56.01%63.29%

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