Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Stockland (SGP.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.08 - $10.59$8.01
Multi-Stage$11.24 - $12.33$11.78
Blended Fair Value$9.89
Current Price$5.36
Upside84.60%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-4.42%2.28%0.220.220.260.250.220.270.270.230.200.19
YoY Growth---1.87%-15.21%4.64%15.30%-20.52%0.77%16.40%17.86%6.25%6.92%
Dividend Yield--4.07%5.23%6.51%6.94%4.67%8.26%6.45%5.87%4.52%3.95%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,131.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)931.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)200.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)226.20141.3884.83
Cash Retained (M)200.00200.00200.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-226.20-141.38-84.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)-26.2058.63115.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,405.672,405.672,405.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.020.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.390.390.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.020.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.380.410.43
WACC / Discount Rate6.48%6.48%6.48%
Growth Rate0.28%1.28%2.28%
Fair Value$6.08$8.01$10.59
Upside / Downside13.49%49.48%97.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,131.001,145.491,160.161,175.021,190.071,205.311,241.47
Payout Ratio82.32%83.85%85.39%86.93%88.46%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)931.00960.53990.661,021.411,052.781,084.781,148.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.48%6.48%6.48%
Growth Rate0.28%1.28%2.28%
Year 1 PV (M)893.16902.06910.97
Year 2 PV (M)856.57873.73891.07
Year 3 PV (M)821.21846.02871.33
Year 4 PV (M)787.06818.93851.75
Year 5 PV (M)754.11792.47832.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)22,932.6324,099.0925,312.53
Equity Value (M)27,044.7328,332.3029,670.02
Shares Outstanding (M)2,405.672,405.672,405.67
Fair Value$11.24$11.78$12.33
Upside / Downside109.74%119.73%130.10%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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