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SMART Global Holdings, Inc. (SGH)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.98 - $5.92$4.90
Multi-Stage$4.44 - $4.85$4.64
Blended Fair Value$4.77
Current Price$17.31
Upside-72.44%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)25.39
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)17.53
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5.083.171.90
Cash Retained (M)17.5317.5317.53
(-) Cash Required (M)-5.08-3.17-1.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)12.4514.3615.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)54.2054.2054.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.230.260.29
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.230.260.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.370.410.43
WACC / Discount Rate11.67%11.67%11.67%
Growth Rate2.05%3.05%4.05%
Fair Value$3.98$4.90$5.92
Upside / Downside-77.03%-71.69%-65.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)25.3926.1726.9627.7928.6329.5130.39
Payout Ratio30.96%42.76%54.57%66.38%78.19%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7.8611.1914.7118.4422.3926.5628.11

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate11.67%11.67%11.67%
Growth Rate2.05%3.05%4.05%
Year 1 PV (M)9.9210.0210.12
Year 2 PV (M)11.5711.8012.03
Year 3 PV (M)12.8613.2513.64
Year 4 PV (M)13.8514.4014.97
Year 5 PV (M)14.5715.2916.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)177.89186.78196.02
Equity Value (M)240.67251.54262.82
Shares Outstanding (M)54.2054.2054.20
Fair Value$4.44$4.64$4.85
Upside / Downside-74.35%-73.19%-71.99%

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