Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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SAF-Holland SE (SFQ.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$91.62 - $224.00$209.92
Multi-Stage$33.49 - $36.60$35.02
Blended Fair Value$122.47
Current Price$17.10
Upside616.20%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.56%12.16%0.850.600.350.000.000.450.450.440.400.32
YoY Growth--41.66%71.43%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%2.34%10.00%24.99%18.52%
Dividend Yield--5.22%3.17%2.98%0.00%0.00%12.20%4.34%2.68%2.56%2.95%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)51.12
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)38.59
(=) Cash Retained (M)12.53
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10.226.393.83
Cash Retained (M)12.5312.5312.53
(-) Cash Required (M)-10.22-6.39-3.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)2.316.148.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)45.3845.3845.38
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.140.19
LTM Dividend per Share0.850.850.85
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.140.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.900.991.04
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$91.62$209.92$224.00
Upside / Downside435.78%1,127.61%1,209.95%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)51.1254.4457.9861.7565.7670.0472.14
Payout Ratio75.48%78.39%81.29%84.19%87.10%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)38.5942.6747.1351.9957.2863.0366.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)39.6840.0640.43
Year 2 PV (M)40.7541.5242.31
Year 3 PV (M)41.7942.9944.21
Year 4 PV (M)42.8144.4646.15
Year 5 PV (M)43.8145.9348.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,310.961,374.281,440.03
Equity Value (M)1,519.801,589.241,661.26
Shares Outstanding (M)45.3845.3845.38
Fair Value$33.49$35.02$36.60
Upside / Downside95.83%104.78%114.06%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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