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Definitive Analysis

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SMITHFIELD FOODS INC (SFD)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18.57 - $27.86$22.97
Multi-Stage$36.34 - $39.97$38.12
Blended Fair Value$30.55
Current Price$23.39
Upside30.59%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021201520142013201220112010
DPS0.00%0.00%0.740.831.270.490.080.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---10.84%-34.88%158.33%540.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.63%4.05%0.00%0.00%0.38%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)864.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)315.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)549.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)172.80108.0064.80
Cash Retained (M)549.00549.00549.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-172.80-108.00-64.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)376.20441.00484.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)389.37389.37389.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.971.131.24
LTM Dividend per Share0.810.810.81
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.971.131.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.781.942.05
WACC / Discount Rate7.37%7.37%7.37%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$18.57$22.97$27.86
Upside / Downside-20.60%-1.79%19.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)864.00855.36846.81838.34829.95821.66846.31
Payout Ratio36.46%47.17%57.88%68.58%79.29%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)315.00403.44490.09574.96658.09739.49782.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.37%7.37%7.37%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)371.97375.76379.56
Year 2 PV (M)416.59425.14433.77
Year 3 PV (M)450.60464.54478.76
Year 4 PV (M)475.51495.21515.53
Year 5 PV (M)492.64518.29545.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,941.1612,562.9613,210.40
Equity Value (M)14,148.4614,841.9015,563.01
Shares Outstanding (M)389.37389.37389.37
Fair Value$36.34$38.12$39.97
Upside / Downside55.35%62.97%70.88%

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