Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

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Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Ticker

Industry

Sector

Select Medical Holdings Corporation (SEM)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Care FacilitiesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.10 - $8.76$7.40
Multi-Stage$9.86 - $10.82$10.33
Blended Fair Value$8.87
Current Price$12.84
Upside-30.94%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%1.93%0.510.510.510.400.000.000.000.000.000.10
YoY Growth--1.12%-1.06%27.65%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-75.40%
Dividend Yield--3.08%3.18%3.70%3.12%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%1.64%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)110.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)39.81
(=) Cash Retained (M)70.19
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)22.0013.758.25
Cash Retained (M)70.1970.1970.19
(-) Cash Required (M)-22.00-13.75-8.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)48.1956.4461.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)125.56125.56125.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.380.450.49
LTM Dividend per Share0.320.320.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.380.450.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.700.770.81
WACC / Discount Rate9.26%9.26%9.26%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$6.10$7.40$8.76
Upside / Downside-52.48%-42.37%-31.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)110.00108.90107.81106.73105.66104.60107.74
Payout Ratio36.19%46.95%57.71%68.48%79.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)39.8151.1362.2273.0883.7294.1499.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.26%9.26%9.26%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)46.3346.8047.27
Year 2 PV (M)51.0852.1253.18
Year 3 PV (M)54.3656.0457.75
Year 4 PV (M)56.4258.7661.17
Year 5 PV (M)57.4860.4863.59
PV of Terminal Value (M)972.801,023.451,076.20
Equity Value (M)1,238.461,297.651,359.17
Shares Outstanding (M)125.56125.56125.56
Fair Value$9.86$10.33$10.82
Upside / Downside-23.18%-19.51%-15.70%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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