Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Spheria Emerging Companies Limited (SEC.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.78 - $17.80$14.61
Multi-Stage$23.33 - $25.70$24.49
Blended Fair Value$19.55
Current Price$2.43
Upside704.68%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20252024202320222021202020192018
DPS12.61%0.00%0.140.110.090.130.060.080.070.000.000.00
YoY Growth--20.60%30.36%-30.95%108.27%-19.92%14.17%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.66%5.30%4.60%6.40%3.07%3.89%3.41%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)82.05
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)13.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)69.05
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16.4110.266.15
Cash Retained (M)69.0569.0569.05
(-) Cash Required (M)-16.41-10.26-6.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)52.6458.7962.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)59.8459.8459.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.880.981.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.220.220.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.880.981.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.101.201.27
WACC / Discount Rate7.13%7.13%7.13%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$11.78$14.61$17.80
Upside / Downside384.67%501.41%632.31%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)82.0581.2380.4179.6178.8178.0380.37
Payout Ratio15.84%30.67%45.51%60.34%75.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)13.0024.9236.5948.0359.2470.2274.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.13%7.13%7.13%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)23.0223.2623.49
Year 2 PV (M)31.2431.8932.53
Year 3 PV (M)37.9039.0740.27
Year 4 PV (M)43.1944.9846.83
Year 5 PV (M)47.3149.7752.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,213.531,276.721,342.51
Equity Value (M)1,396.191,465.681,537.97
Shares Outstanding (M)59.8459.8459.84
Fair Value$23.33$24.49$25.70
Upside / Downside860.16%907.95%957.66%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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