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Definitive Analysis

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Shoe Carnival, Inc. (SCVL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18.88 - $28.63$23.46
Multi-Stage$23.80 - $26.06$24.91
Blended Fair Value$24.19
Current Price$18.33
Upside31.95%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS21.00%11.79%0.530.440.360.290.190.210.170.180.180.18
YoY Growth--20.68%22.24%24.68%55.97%-9.58%19.06%-1.16%-4.16%-0.18%4.33%
Dividend Yield--2.94%1.28%1.56%0.96%0.62%1.84%0.96%1.46%1.44%1.43%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)57.88
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)16.31
(=) Cash Retained (M)41.57
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.587.234.34
Cash Retained (M)41.5741.5741.57
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.58-7.23-4.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)30.0034.3437.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)27.5327.5327.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.091.251.35
LTM Dividend per Share0.590.590.59
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.091.251.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.681.841.94
WACC / Discount Rate10.02%10.02%10.02%
Growth Rate1.02%2.02%3.02%
Fair Value$18.88$23.46$28.63
Upside / Downside3.01%28.01%56.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)57.8859.0560.2461.4662.7063.9765.89
Payout Ratio28.17%40.54%52.90%65.27%77.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)16.3123.9431.8740.1148.6857.5760.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.02%10.02%10.02%
Growth Rate1.02%2.02%3.02%
Year 1 PV (M)21.5421.7621.97
Year 2 PV (M)25.8226.3326.85
Year 3 PV (M)29.2430.1231.02
Year 4 PV (M)31.9433.2234.54
Year 5 PV (M)34.0035.7137.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)512.64538.52565.44
Equity Value (M)655.18685.67717.31
Shares Outstanding (M)27.5327.5327.53
Fair Value$23.80$24.91$26.06
Upside / Downside29.85%35.89%42.16%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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